As the presidential election nears, the fly-over states of the Midwest may play a larger role than ever before.
And pollsters, even those from the Left, are suggesting Trump’s wave of blue-collar voters could help him carry decisive states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
According to Breitbart, one analysis shows:
Trump has gained 6 points over Romney in Ohio and Iowa, and has closed the gap with Hillary Clinton down to almost error-margin levels in crucial Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That midwestern success is what gives Trump a one-third chance of winning the election, said Silver. “Clinton underperforming Obama’s 2012 forecast by *4 points* in the Midwest. That’s a major liability,” he tweeted.
On Sunday night, according to RealClearPolitics’s average of polls, Clinton was ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by just 2.4 points (46 percent to 43.6 percent), and ahead in Michigan by 4.7 points (44.7 percent to 40 percent). A win in either state could be enough for Trump to win the election.
GOP leaders in Michigan and Pennsylvania have plenty of reasons for optimism, even as Trump is still lagging in the polls.
One anecdote that has kept Republican pollsters optimistic are the hundreds of thousands of Trump supporters willing to wait hours for his rallies.
Usually, it’s difficult to get the blue-collar population to the voting booth–but, if they’re willing to stand in line for rallies, they might also be willing to take the trip to vote tomorrow.
Another promising sign are the hundreds of yard signs scattered throughout the Midwest. As one GOP spokeswoman noted, “It was all Donald Trump… I would say it was 99 to 1 [and] I think I saw six Hillary signs in our trek… there is a huge enthusiasm gap… everything is trending Trump across the country.”
The Clinton campaign is very aware of this and has dedicated the final hours to Michigan–President Obama will be there as well.
As Breitbart reports, “the shift towards Trump is found in nearly every state from New York to Iowa.”
Tomorrow we will see if the blue-collar wave is enough for Trump to ride his way into the White House tomorrow evening.
One thing is for sure, candidates cannot ignore this populist realignment. The Midwest matters.