Democrats are not faring as well in Florida as they did four years ago, according to a new report published Sunday.
“(T)hey’re not going to match their 3.7-percentage-point lead in early votes by Election Day they enjoyed in 2012,” explained Politico. “And Republicans tend to outvote Democrats on Election Day in Florida.”
This was not to say that the Democrats were not leading, because they were. However, their lead measured only 0.5 percentage points, with both Democrats and Republicans each representing about 39 percent of the record 6.1 million early votes cast in the state.
While Republican nominee Donald Trump can count on the vast majority of the Republican ballots cast, and Democrat Hillary Clinton can expect to claim most of the ballots cast by registered Democrats, about 21 percent of the remaining early votes were cast by independents, whose political allegiances remained unknown.
“We don’t know the vote choice of the independents, and I’d be very wary of predictive models showing whether they support Trump or Clinton,” Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida political science professor, told Politico.
“Then you have a quarter of the electorate so far with no vote history in 2012,” he added. “So we know little or almost nothing about them.”
Except that the sudden surge in new voters fit the theory touted by some conservatives that there was an army of hidden Trump supporters who had either never voted or not voted in a long time — but who felt compelled to make their voices be heard this time around.
“(B)y polling likely voters rather than registered voters, polls are missing a lot of where Trump’s support lies,” claimed an Iowa Republican insider told Politico last month.
Even Chris Cillizza, a liberal columnist for The Washington Post, has admitted to the existence of such voters.
“Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are people that don’t want to tell their friends and certainly don’t want to tell someone random calling them on the phone for a poll that they’re for him,” he said during an appearance on MSNBC in late October.
Liberals can spin the facts all they want, but it seems pretty obvious that Trump is performing far better than anyone had expected. Likewise, the Democrats could be performing a whole lot better. Thankfully, they are not.